6 PrizePicks Props for NFL Week 1
Prop picks for Week 1’s games on PrizePicks are finally here! With some great value involving Jacksonville’s offensive stars, take a swing on Lawrence slinging it to Kirk all day long.
However, be wary when betting the Pats against a solid Philly defense and continue to follow a specific Jared Goff trend. Stay tuned throughout the season for weekly prop picks and best of luck in all your betting endeavors this football season!
QB Trevor Lawrence (JAX) OVER 1.5 PASS TD
Jacksonville takes on Indianapolis as 5-point favorites this Sunday. Given my love for Jacksonville’s playmakers all off-season, I’m riding with Trevor Lawrence and the receiving group to get the job done for Pederson’s squad in week 1.
T-LAW only hit this mark seven times last season, but after the addition of Calvin Ridley and a full season under Doug Pederson’s offensive system, Lawrence has a great chance to become an MVP candidate in one of the weaker divisions in football.
The Colts had the 5th best rushing defense last season. Combine that with Travis Etienne’s struggles at the goal line, and we could see Lawrence grabbing that 2nd or 3rd TD of the night on a short route to one of their talented playmakers. Ultimately, this line is too good to pass up.
QB Mac Jones (NE) UNDER 231.5 PASS YDS
The Patriots begin their season against the reigning NFC Champions on Sunday. The Eagles' defense might be a bit weaker coming into 2023, but they are still a top-five unit and should give Mac problems all night.
While a few Patriot TDs aren’t out of the realm, Mac really struggled against top-tier defenses last year so it might be time to start betting his “unders” against better opponents.
With Elliott and Stevenson manning the backfield along with some other playmakers who could take some carries, the Pats might go to the ground game more than expected to take the ball out of Jones’ hands early on in this matchup.
WR Chris Olave (NO) OVER 64.5 REC YDS
Derek Carr and the new-look New Orleans Saints take on the Titans in their Week 1 showdown. Chris Olave is due for a huge 2nd year leap and that could easily start this Sunday against a Titans secondary that ranks 26th on PFF leading into this season.
Chris hit this mark eight times last season with extremely poor QB play. Without Alvin Kamara in the mix for targets in this game, I’m all in on Olave reaching the 70-yard mark in what should be a tight contest.
WR Christian Kirk (JAX) OVER 50.5 REC YDS
All offseason, Kirk’s value has slid because of the arrival of Calvin Ridley. What if I told you Ridley’s appearance is independent of Kirk’s value?
The 26-year-old wideout should see even more slot snaps this season and with an incredible amount of chemistry already developed with Trevor Lawrence, Kirk’s yardage and TD total shouldn’t drop anytime soon.
C Kirk hit this over nine times last season and torched this Colts defense for 78 yards and 2 scores in Week 2. While the Jags might ease Ridley back into the offense, Kirk has a great chance to finish this game with the most yardage out of the Jags positional players.
QB Jared Goff (DET)OVER 0.5 INT
Dating back to 2019 (four seasons), Jared Goff has thrown an interception in the season opener. The last three coming against solid secondaries in Philly, San Francisco, and Dallas, Thursday's matchup against the defending champions is no different.
Kansas City comes into 2023 with the 7th best secondary via PFF that is coordinated extremely well by longtime DC Steve Spagnuolo. In a game that should be high-scoring with about 30-35 passing attempts from each side, Goff’s bound to throw a deep one on a 3rd down that results in an INT for the Chiefs.
RB David Montgomery (DET)OVER 12.5 RUSH ATT
Every sign points towards David Montgomery reaching 13 carries in his first game with the Detroit Lions. For one, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only viable option in the receiving game with Jameson Williams out and a rookie starting at TE.
Secondly, highly touted RB Jahmyrr Gibbs should be adding value to the Lions' receiving game, lining up in the slot more often than in the backfield potentially. Next, the Lions will want to keep the ball out of Pat Mahomes’ hands as much as possible.
Lastly, Montgomery went for 50 yards 8/10 times with Chicago last season when rushing the ball 13 or more times.