Football is finally here! After months of Underdog Best Ball strategy and fantasy football prep, we can finally place our TNF prop bets on a Week 1 matchup that should have some fireworks.

I expect the Chiefs and Lions to put up around 25 points each, so I'll take a swing on the top pass catchers for both teams while trusting in the rookie Jahmyrr Gibbs to instantly make an impact in the receiving game. Stay tuned for weekly TNF prop articles!

QB Jared Goff (DET) OVER 1.5 PASS TD

Goff hit this mark in about half of his games last season in the Lions' “rejuvenating season”. Coming into Week 1 of 2023, the 28-year-old has plenty of variables on his side.

A dynamic running back duo that sports one elite pass-catching back and one hard runner, a proper #1 wideout who can play just about anywhere on the football field, and an offensive system that he’s accustomed to.

With Kansas City’s defense in shambles due to the Chris Jones contract situation, it’s tough to expect the Chiefs to get an immense amount of pressure on Goff early on in this affair. With this game likely to hit the 50-point total, I’m all in on Goff and the Lions offense clicking on all cylinders.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) OVER 3.5 REC

Gibbs was the highly selected playmaker that the Lions front office dreamt of getting on draft night. After moving on from Jamaal Williams and injury-riddled D’Andre Swift, Gibbs should add a flair to this Detroit offense that hasn’t been seen in the Dan Campbell era.

With Montgomery taking most of the carries, expect Gibbs to be a force out of the backfield and in the slot as a wideout at times. Amon Ra. St-Brown and Josh Reynolds are the only players who should battle Jahmyr for targets.

In a game that could end up with Goff and Mahomes throwing it more than 40 times each, the Gibbs reception total is a “must-have”.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) OVER 7.0 REC

ARSB has dominated virtually every advanced wide receiver statistic over the past season and a half. Finishing as a top 10 receiver last season, nothing has changed within the Lions offense to set him back in 2023, just his third season in the pros.

He began last season with 12 targets in his first two affairs and had eight games with 10 or more targets, most of which came in close games against tough opponents. 

The Kansas City secondary is known for having some holes, especially when they switch into zone coverage. Without a true WR2, Amon Ra should get double-digit targets as all signs lead to a high-scoring affair in Detroit.

TE Sam LaPorta (DET) UNDER 34.5 REC YDS

On the other hand, rookie tight ends tend to struggle early on in their careers. While LaPorta should get a solid snap share, I think the outside playmakers and running backs will have more of an impact in this first game for the Lions. 

With Brock Wright also due to command some of the snap share and targets, it’s going to be difficult for the rookie out of Iowa to reach the 35 yard mark unless there is a bust in the Kansas City secondary.

Wright and the other Lions Tight Ends had a poor target share and YPT last season and I don’t expect that to change within the Detroit offense just yet.

TE Travis Kelce (KC) OVER 0.5 REC TD

Possibly the easiest bet on Thursday night, Kelce is due to find the paydirt in his first game of the season on primetime. In the past three seasons, Travis has scored four TDs in week 1 so the history is on our side for this bet.

Kansas City finds itself in a similar situation to Detroit in the way that the team has a proper #1 in Kelce, but lacks other star power on the outside. Patrick Mahomes’ receiving red zone options are McKinnon, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling among others.

While I’d expect one of these guys to come down with a miracle TD throw from Mahomes, it would almost be irresponsible to bet against Kelce at the “0.5” mark.

RB Jerick McKinnon (KC) UNDER 16.5 RUSH YDS

McKinnon was one of the better stories in the 2nd half of last season. After battling with injury throughout his career, the 30-year-old propelled the KC offense to a handful of important wins.

Jerick only had one game with over 10 rushing attempts last season and did all of his damage receiving the ball (8 REC TD in final 6 games). McKinnon hit under 16 rushing yards in 10 games last season.

With Pacheco and Clyde fully healthy and Kadarius Toney, Rice, and Moore due to take a few stabs at running the ball in Andy Reid’s offense, I’m banking on McKinnon continuing his run as a primary receiver in this Chiefs offense.