Bears at Commanders: Underdog and VividPicks Pick'em Picks

by Adam Hutchinson | Published: October 3, 2023

The winless Bears travel to Washington to take on the 2-2 Commanders to kick off week 5. Take both starting running backs to make an impact in the receiving game while Terry McLaurin’s boosted TD odds should be an integral part of your Underdog prop slate this Thursday night.

RB Khalil Herbert (CHI) OVER 11.5 REC YDS

Khalil Herbert finally received the bulk of the rushing work last week and produced his best game of the season. After taking the reins from David Montgomery over this summer, many expected the 3rd year RB to produce RB1 numbers off the get-go.

Although last week was his first RB1 performance, Herbert continues to be a threat through the air as the defense zeros in on Justin Fields’ dual-threat playmaking. Khalil has hit this receiving mark in every game except the Kansas City matchup in which the Bears got completely dominated.

We love Herbert to continue to receive most of the RB snaps on Thursday as the Bears look to steal an away game for their first win of the season.

WR Darnell Mooney (CHI) OVER 2.5 REC

Mooney and D.J. Moore turned in solid performances last week against Denver in one of their first healthy games together.

While Moore requires more attention from the defense, expect Mooney to be involved in some screen plays and short yardage gains as Fields looks to connect with one of his only playmaking options on offense.

When Darnell is fully healthy, he’s only had four out of thirteen games with less than 2 catches.

QB Sam Howell (WAS) OVER 12.5 RUSH YDS

Howell has been a pleasant surprise for the 2-2 Washington Commanders. The former Tar Heel nearly defeated the reigning NFC champion Eagles in a shootout while bouncing back from a horrendous game against the Bills where he threw four interceptions.

Sam’s duel threat ability should be on full display on Thursday night, as the Bears defense has broken down in every game this season for big plays by the QB.

Outside of Jordan Love’s 12 rushing yards in Week 1, every QB between Mayfield, Mahomes, and Wilson have hit this “over” mark against the shaky Bears defense.

RB Brian Robinson (WAS) OVER 6.5 REC YDS

Another beneficiary of a shaky Bears secondary and defense as a whole, Brian Robinson is due for a monster game. The 2nd year running back is finally playing in over 50% of Washington’s offensive snaps with Eric Bienemy in full control.

Looking to get over the .500 mark, we expect Robinson to be a focal point in both the rushing and passing game as his big play ability should show up against one of the worst defenses in the league.

On average, Chicago allows 56.7 yards through the air to running backs this season which is the 2nd worst in the league in front of Denver. 

WR Terry McLaurin (WAS) OVER 0.5 TDS (1.25x)

For Thursday night, let’s throw in a boosted Underdog bet to cap off our slate of prop bets. Scary Terry has one touchdown so far this season, coming against the Broncos.

With Jahan Dotson questionable heading into a shortened week for Washington, Terry should become a focal point for Bienemy and the game plan against this Bears defense that has allowed big play after big play.

While Chicago is middle-of-the-pack in TDs and yards allowed to wideouts thus far, McLaurin’s solid target separation (20th among WRs) and Howell’s trust in the veteran playmaker is enough for us to take a gamble on back-to-back scoring weeks for the Commanders’ WR1. 

Adam Hutchinson

Subscribe to Eat Watch Draft

Receive free weekly picks, lineup advice, exclusive promotions, and more.

Invalid email address
We will not spam you and you can unsubscribe at any time.

Subscribe to Eat Watch Draft

Enter your email for free weekly picks, the latest fantasy news,  exclusive promotions, and more.
Invalid email address