Bengals at Jaguars: Best Pick'em Picks for Underdog
The 5-6 Bengals travel to Jacksonville to take on the AFC-leading, 8-3 Jaguars. Minus Joe Burrow, look for Joe Mixon to make an impact in the passing game, while Christian Kirk continues his solid run of play post-bye week.
RB Joe Mixon (CIN) OVER 18.5 REC YDS
Mixon comes into this game hitting the 31-yard mark through the air in both games without starting QB Joe Burrow.
While the Jacksonville defense will focus on limiting Browning’s ability to throw deep to Chase or Higgins, we love Mixon as a safety valve that should pick up a handful of 1st downs through the air in this game.
Jacksonville allowed 47 yards through the air to McCaffrey a few weeks ago and 54 yards to Devin Singletary last week in Houston.
RB Joe Mixon (CIN) UNDER 46.5 RUSH YDS
While we love Mixon as a pass catcher, his rushing stats might take a hit on Monday night. The Jags allow the 4th-least yards on the ground this season at 87.4.
Couple that with Mixon playing nearly every game since 2020 alongside Burrow, who defenses had to respect downfield, and this could end up being a 10-carry-or-less game for the veteran RB.
WR Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) OVER 0.5 TDS (1.75x)
Zac Taylor is too good of an offensive coach to let Chase end up without the ball, no matter the Quarterback situation. This was proven in the Baltimore game, as Chase scored a touchdown while having one of his worst performances of the season.
In the Bengals’ last game against Pittsburgh, Chase was able to break away for a long game en route to an 81-yard performance. While we wouldn’t be confident in betting on his yard total, look for Ja’Marr to make an impact in the red zone where Jacksonville has struggled as of late.
Since their bye week, the Jags defense has allowed scores to Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Deebo Samuel. As our boosted prop of Monday night, expect Chase to join this list of WR1s.
WR Christian Kirk (JAX) OVER 4.0 REC
Kirk has been a slightly volatile option this season, playing as the WR1 in some games, and then differing to Etienne and Ridley in others. After being targetted by Lawrence 24 times in the past three games, the Bengals' defense that should also be concerned about big downfield plays to Ridley should be to Kirk’s benefit.
When playing against “superior” opponents such as Kansas City, Buffalo, and San Francisco, he’s hit this mark each time. While the Bengals offense has taken a hit with the Burrow injury, still expect this game to be close, while Kirk benefits from some short yardage throws by Lawrence to initiate drives.