Bengals at Ravens: Underdog Pick'em Picks We Love

Matt Brown
by Matt Brown | Published: November 15, 2023

In one of the best Thursday night matchups of the season, the 5-4 Bengals travel to take on the 7-3 Ravens, who still hold control over the AFC North division. While banking on Lamar Jackson and rookie Keaton Mitchell to run all over the Bengals, look for Joe Burrow to spread the ball around to stay in the fight for the AFC North title in a huge rivalry matchup.

QB Joe Burrow (CIN) OVER 37.5 PASS ATT

“Joey B” has put the first portion of the season behind him, throwing for 10 TDs and just 2 INTs in a four-game stretch. Then came the Texans game. While Burrow is still an elite quarterback, signs of inconsistency are apparent with errant decision-making down the stretch in games.

With the Ravens' rush defense being stellar this season, expect Burrow to throw the ball on early downs and in the red zone, as the Bengals are more successful when Joey moves the ball downfield using his arm.

He averages over 40 pass attempts per contest in wins and just 35.5 attempts in losses. Expect Zac Taylor and company to hammer this stat when game-planning for Thursday night.

RB Joe Mixon (CIN) UNDER 80.5 TOT YDS

Getting back to that nasty Ravens defensive core, Joe Mixon might struggle to get going on Thursday night. The now-veteran RB has hit this mark in just three games this season.

Mixon will face a Ravens defense allowing the 8th least rush attempts per contest while limiting success via the ground game.

With Mixon’s YPT numbers slowly faltering in his 7th season in Cincy, expect Joe Burrow to lean into utilizing his receivers to move the ball downfield against Baltimore.

QB Lamar Jackson (BAL) OVER 8.5 RUSH ATT

Jackson has performed like an MVP at times throughout the 2023 season, shades of his former self shining through at key moments. Lamar has hit this mark 6 of 10 times while rushing 9.14 times per win and 9.33 times per loss.

So, either way, this matchup turns, it’s likely for Jackson to scramble a handful of times against this Cincy defense allowing 5.0 YPC and 5.4 YPC in away contests. Both of these stats rank 31st in the NFL.

RB Gus Edwards (BAL) UNDER 11.5 RUSH ATT

While Gus Edwards has been a scoring machine, rushing for the 3rd most TDs in 2023, expect Lamar Jackson and newcomer Keaton Mitchell to snag some of his carry share.

Mitchell is averaging an absurd 14.33 YPC on 12 rushes and against a Cincy defense that is prone to struggle against the run, expect Baltimore to utilize their big-play specialist in Mitchell more in this contest.

Edwards has seen back-to-back games with under 11 carries for the first time this season in weeks 9 and 10.

TE Mark Andrews (BAL) OVER 4.0 REC

Moving to our premier receiver, Mark Andrews has been a force in primetime games serving as a safety blanket for Lamar Jackson. Andrews has secured four or more catches in every contest except week 10’s brutal loss to Cleveland.

With the Bengals allowing over 12 passing first downs per game (23rd in the NFL), Andrews should be the main beneficiary of that stat, serving as the premier safety blanket down the field to move the sticks on Thursday night. 

Matt Brown

With an unwavering passion for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, Matt brings a wealth of knowledge in football, hockey, and baseball to the team at Hello Rookie. His innovative insights are shaped by his extensive academic background, boasting a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management. Matt's unique blend of sports enthusiasm and technical expertise drives his cutting-edge contributions to the platform.

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