Best Season-Long QB Props for 2023

by Andrew Elmquist | Published: July 10, 2023

The NFL Season might be a few months away, but there is certainly a lot to be excited about, even in the offseason. Several teams have made it clear that 2023 is the year they are trying to contend, adding a lot of pieces to their roster.

Today, we’re going to take a look at our favorite season-long quarterback player props. There’s some great value to be had with these picks, and we’re excited to be putting these plays together, giving us something to do in an otherwise slow time for the NFL. All of the yardages from these plays are currently provided on PrizePicks.

Aaron Rodgers OVER 3,999.5 Passing Yards

If there was ever a layup of a quarterback prop, it would be this one. Aaron Rodgers is joining a young, stacked team in the New York Jets and should have a fantastic opportunity to eclipse his 2022 numbers.

While Rodgers only threw for 3,695 yards in 2022, he had at least 4,000 yards in four of the five previous seasons. We’re looking for him to regress back to his career mean, resulting in the over hitting easily for his season total.

Plus, his supporting cast in New York is significantly better than his last few years have been in Green Bay, giving him plenty of options to spread the ball around to.

Jared Goff OVER 3,999.5 Passing Yards

Jared Goff’s 2022 campaign was among the most surprising in the NFL last season. In his first year with Detroit in 2021, he had 3,245 passing yards in 14 total games.

Despite many doubters, he came into year two of this offense with a mission and totaled 4,438 passing yards. The Lions' offense showed a propensity to pass the ball often in 2022. If that game plan continues into 2023, Goff should have no problem hitting the over on his season passing yardage total.

He’ll have another offseason to develop rapport with his weapons, only helping his cause. Plus, if the Lions find themselves behind in games, Goff will be forced to throw more, giving him even more chances to hit this total.

Lamar Jackson UNDER 3,550.5 Passing Yards

Listen. We love Lamar Jackson as much as the next person. His combination of speed, athleticism, and arm talent makes up for a very exciting player to watch. We loved watching his MVP season in 2019, and he’s been in search of recapturing that magic ever since.

However, Jackson hasn’t come close to cracking 3500 yards in a singular season up to this point, and we’re not expecting that to start in the 2023 season.

Yes, he’ll be surrounded by a “pass-happy” offensive coordinator, but ultimately, Jackson has shown us that he’s a run-first quarterback. For these reasons, we’re out on Jackson’s passing yardage total for the upcoming season.


Andrew Elmquist

Andrew Elmquist graduated from Winona State University with bachelor's degrees in Communication Studies and Spanish. Andrew is a budding analyst in the sports industry, and he enjoys long walks on the beach, spending time with his beautiful wife, and playing both real-life and fantasy sports.

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