Best Underdog Prop Picks for NFL Week 17

Matt Brown
by Matt Brown | Published: December 26, 2023

Heading into the pivotal Week 17, be weary when betting on playmakers Derrick Henry and Justin Fields, while Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford should air it out in their plus-matchups. Check out the rest of our Underdog prop picks below! Good luck!

QB Bailey Zappe (NE) UNDER 185.5 PASS YDS

While Zappe has played well in a handful of outings since taking over the starting job from Mac Jones, the Bills defense is hanging onto their playoff spot by a thread and should look to pressure Zappe starting with the first snap.

Buffalo has allowed the 5th-least passing yards over the past three outings, including just 134 yards to Dak Prescott two weeks ago and 215 yards to Easton Stick this past Saturday. Zappe and the Pats will look to run the ball rather than throw it against this Bills D.

RB Derrick Henry (TEN) UNDER 62.5 RUSH YDS

The Houston defense has been elite in stopping the run over the past three outings, allowing just 66 YPG on the ground. They’ve allowed 34 rush yards in the last two weeks to Jerome Ford and Derrick Henry, while containing Breece Hall to 40 yards the week before.

Safe to say, the Titans will try to beat the Texans through the air, as Houston has allowed 30 or more points in two of their last three, and a huge game to Joe Flacco this past week.

QB Kyler Murray (ARI) OVER 223.5 PASS YDS

Although the Cardinals dropped a tough one to Chicago a few days ago, Kyler came alive in the 2nd half and ended up with a solid outing. With the Eagles’ defense disheveled after that narrow win against the Giants, Murray hitting the 224-yard mark for the 4th time in his shortened season is a solid bet.

Philly allows the most pass yards (280) per game at home this season.

QB Matthew Stafford (LAR) OVER 257.5 PASS YDS

Matt Stafford and the Rams are on an absolute tear. They are averaging the 2nd-most yards per game, 4th-most PPG, and 2nd-most YPP over the last three games in which they are 2-1.

Stafford is now producing QB1 numbers with Kupp and Puka healthy, hitting this mark in four straight outings. With the Giants’ middle-of-the-pack defense on tap that just allowed a solid outing to Jalen Hurts, look for Stafford and the Rams to hit a few big plays to secure that NFC Wild Card spot.

QB Justin Fields (CHI) UNDER 198.5 PASS YDS

While Fields looked good in the Bears’ win against Arizona last week, he has only hit the 200 pass-yard mark in two of the last five outings.

With Atlanta allowing the 3rd-least 155.3 pass yards per game over the past three games, look for Fields to make an impact as a rusher again, where he has averaged 69.6 rush YPG since returning from injury.

Matt Brown

With an unwavering passion for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, Matt brings a wealth of knowledge in football, hockey, and baseball to the team at Hello Rookie. His innovative insights are shaped by his extensive academic background, boasting a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management. Matt's unique blend of sports enthusiasm and technical expertise drives his cutting-edge contributions to the platform.

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