Bucs at Bills: Underdog and VividPicks Pick'em Picks

Matt Brown
by Matt Brown | Published: October 25, 2023

The 3-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Buffalo to take on the 4-3 Bills and find themselves having more questions than answers through seven weeks.

While Mike Evans and Stefon Diggs are solid bets to score in this affair, bet on Dalton Kincaid to have another fantastic outing against a Bucs defense that has been vulnerable against the tight end position.

RB Rachaad White (TB) UNDER 48.5 RUSH YDS

While the Bills have allowed a surprising 2nd-worst 5.6 YPC to running backs, it’s only a matter of time until this championship-contending defense turns up the heat.

With the Bills favored by a bit north of a touchdown, expect White to be heavily involved in the passing game after securing six catches for 65 yards last week against the Falcons.

White has hit the 49 rush yard mark on just two occasions this season and needed 15+ carries to get there. Don’t expect the third-year back to take advantage of a shaky Bills defensive line while continuing to thrive as Mayfield’s safety valve.

WR Mike Evans (TB) OVER 0.5 TDS (1.5x)

While the Bills have allowed the least targets per game to wideouts, a boosted Mike Evans touchdown bet is our favorite boosted Underdog bet on Thursday night.

The star wideout has scored in four out of five healthy games with Mayfield quarterbacking. If the Bucs end up scoring in this matchup, there’s a great chance the beneficiary is Evans.

He's been targeted inside the ten-yard line five times this campaign, scoring once. Let's play the Over!

QB Josh Allen (BUF) UNDER 289.5 YDS

The Bucs defense is an extremely underrated unit. In what could become a slow, methodical game, we could see more out of the run game than expected as Tampa looks to slow down the Allen/Diggs combination that has torched the league so far.

Tampa allows just over 2 YPC to quarterbacks and has faced solid rushers in Fields and Hurts thus far.

With an expectation that Buffalo should win a low-scoring game, don’t expect Josh to light it up through the air, or on the ground against a stout defensive unit.

TE Dalton Kincaid (BUF) OVER 37.5 REC YDS

The highly touted rookie out of Utah, Dalton Kincaid, had his first breakout against the Pats last week going for 75 yards on 8 catches.

With Knox out, Kincaid should get 75% or more of the snaps against a Bucs defense that is bottom five in TE targets and receptions per game.

While the focus will most likely be put on Diggs and Gabe Davis on the outside, Dalton is a solid play in DFS lineups, fantasy lineups, and in his Underdog prop bet.

Matt Brown

With an unwavering passion for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, Matt brings a wealth of knowledge in football, hockey, and baseball to the team at Hello Rookie. His innovative insights are shaped by his extensive academic background, boasting a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management. Matt's unique blend of sports enthusiasm and technical expertise drives his cutting-edge contributions to the platform.

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