‘Four Sure’ College Football Prop Bets for Week 12

Ernie Horn
By Ernie HornPublished: November 16, 2023
‘Four Sure’ College Football Prop Bets for Week 12

With the college football season winding down, the race for each conference championship is coming into focus. In addition, the players who are leading those teams to victory – and soon to be named all-conference selections – continue to show the college football world why their teams remain on top.

Despite back-to-back down weeks, this author’s college football picks have hit slightly more than 70% of his predictions. We’ll boost that number this week with these “four sure” college football player prop bet prognostications.

Dillon Gabriel (OU) UNDER 302.5 Passing Yards

Being mentioned as a Heisman finalist, Oklahoma QB Dillion Gabriel has excelled this season for the Sooners. The senior signal-caller has completed over 70 percent of his passes for 3,069 yards and 25 TDs. He’s added 11 rushing TDs and 337 yards on the ground to bolster his credentials.

Picking Gabriel to fall short of the 302.5 passing yards mark needed for this prop bet is not based on BYU’s defense rising to the occasion. Instead, it’s because of its lackluster rush defense. In their past three games, the Cougars have allowed 715 rushing yards and six rushing TDs.

Expect Gabriel and his backfield teammates to run at will against BYU, negating the need for the QB to pad his lofty passing figures on Saturday. As a bonus, bettors who find rushing prop bets for Gabriel and his Sooner teammates should take the over on those prop bets.

Tetairoa McMillan (AZ) OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards

After redshirt freshman QB Noah Fifita supplanted Jayden de Laura in the Arizona lineup, the Wildcats’ aerial attack hit another gear. Fifita has played six games, netting 1,735 passing yards and 16 TDs since the early-season swap at signal caller.

Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan has been the beneficiary of the switch. The sophomore from Hawaii has caught 61 passes for a team-leading 860 yards and eight TDs, with nearly two-thirds of that production coming since Fifita took the reins of the offense.

Utah – this week’s opponent – has allowed at least one receiver to net 90 or more yards in five of their past seven contests. Expect McMillan to add his name to this list and successfully cover this 70.5 receiving yard mark on Saturday.

Drake Maye (UNC) OVER 265.5 Passing Yards

North Carolina has leaned on future NFL draft pick Drake Maye. The QB out of nearby Huntersville has completed 66 percent of his passes for 3,145 yards and 21 TDs this season, leading the Tar Heels to an 8-2 record in 2023.

This week’s opponent – the Clemson Tigers – is one Maye has experience against. In the 2022 ACC Championship game, Maye completed 62% of his passes for 268 yards while he netted 24 rushing yards on 11 carries. Despite his efforts, UNC fell 39-10 to Clemson that evening.

Unfortunately, the Tigers’ defense is nowhere near as stingy this season as the 2022 version, giving bettors an easy player prop bet to wager on in Week 12. Expect Maye – who is averaging over 300 yards per outing – to eclipse 300 yards in this contest against the Tigers.

Cody Schrader (MIZZOU) OVER 114.5 Rushing Yards

When you have someone on a hot streak, give them the ball. That’s exactly what Missouri is doing now with senior RB Cody Schrader. This season, Schrader has run for 1,124 yards on 197 carries, notching 11 rushing TDs.

Expect Schrader to eclipse his season average of 114 rushing yards per game against the Gators. In their last four outings, Florida’s opponents are outpacing their season rushing average by as much as double their 2023 per-game total.

Schrader will add his name to this miserable statistic against the Gators to successfully cover this player prop bet.

Ernie Horn

Ernie Horn

CFB and NFL DFS Expert

Ernie brings 25 years of experience in the newspaper sector to the table. Initially, he dedicated his career to sports journalism, both reporting and editing, before transitioning to the digital sphere in 2022. At EatWatchDraft, Ernie focuses on covering college football and NFL Daily Fantasy Sports.