Green Bay at Las Vegas: Best Picks for Underdog Pick'em
The 2-2 Packers led by Jordan Love travel to Vegas as the struggling Raiders look to bounce back after a string of losses.
While Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed are due to produce big on Monday night, be wary when betting on the rest of the Packers playmakers who are dealing with injury concerns.
QB Jordan Love (GB) OVER 234.5 PASS YDS
After last week’s rough outing on primetime against the Lions, this is more of a bet that displays our trust in Matt Lafleur.
While Love has had a rocky start to his “rookie season”, glimpses of a future star QB have been on display, including their 4th quarter comeback against the Saints that might require a “30-For-30” one day.
As for the actual numbers, J-Love has hit this mark in three of four games this season and with the Raiders defense having just one takeaway thus far, the Packers offense could pick apart Vegas all night.
WR Romeo Doubs (GB) OVER 0.5 TDS (1.5x)
Our Underdog-boosted Monday Night bet goes to Romeo Doubs to score a touchdown. The wideout out of Nevada has already matched his TD total from last season while becoming Love’s top target.
Not only is Vegas allowing nearly 2 TDs per game to wide receivers, but with Romeo ranking top 20 at his position in targets, target share, and target rate, it’s time to treat the 2nd year wideout as Green Bay’s new WR1 while Christian Watson serves more as a deep ball threat.
RB Josh Jacobs (LV) OVER 65.5 RUSH YDS
The Packers' defense has actually been extremely subpar against the running back position this season, allowing 100 yards per game on 4.2 YPC and nearly 50 yards through the air.
With Jacobs bound to become the focal point for the Raiders' offense, a 20-touch game is on tap for Jacobs with added value in the receiving game as this Packers defense will be focused on limiting former Packer Davante Adams all night.
WR Christian Watson (GB) UNDER 3.0 REC
Again, it seems as if Watson might become more of a boom/bust type player rather than a consistent fantasy and prop bet play without Rodgers throwing the passes.
Christian’s unsustainable TD rate has obviously dropped off and with Doubs and Reed emerging as options on 3rd down and short yardage situations, Watson is a tough weekly play.
Not only was Watson limited in Thursday’s practice, meaning he might not see more than 50% of snaps, but he struggled to get separation in his one outing since coming back from injury.
WR Jayden Reed (GB) OVER 35.5 REC YDS
There are two stats that jump out from the paper when discussing Jayden Reed in his short career thus far. First off, he’s taken 99 slot snaps (15th among WRs).
Secondly, he’s had 7 “deep targets” (7th among WRs). Averaging 17 YPC in his first four career games, he’ll now face a vulnerable Vegas secondary which he could eat alive from the slot.
Reed could make a few big plays this game which tips him over the edge here. With Watson’s injury concern, Jayden becomes a solid play in deeper leagues, Underdog props, and DK lineups. Outside of Watson, trust in Reed and Doubs to make some huge plays Monday night.