NFL Week 12 Pick'em Picks for Underdog

Matt Brown
by Matt Brown | Published: November 22, 2023

Continue to trust in the Houston offense to churn out yards and points while the divisional fight between the Jets and Dolphins should see Tyreek Hill & Breece Hall continuing to help their offenses as safety valves with incredible YAC ability.

WR Tyreek Hill (MIA) OVER 6.0 REC

Tyreek Hill is on pace for one of the most impressive single seasons from a pass catcher that we have ever seen. As for the six reception mark, Hill has reached this mark in eight of ten matchups with Miami heavily relying on his downfield activity to secure wins.

Although the Jets passing defense has been top-tier the past two seasons under Saleh, the Miami offense is matchup proof and Tyreek should have another huge day against a Jets secondary that allowed nearly 400 total yards to the Bills.

RB Breece Hall (NYJ) OVER 3.5 REC

Our next bet of the divisional matchup comes in the form of trusting newly promoted QB Tim Boyle to check the ball down to the Jets’ premier playmaker on early downs. Breece Hall has been the “only thing to write home about” regarding this Jets passing game, hitting the 47-yard mark in four of the past five games and providing solid YAC that heavily boosted Zach Wilson’s numbers.

Looking back at Boyle’s last start in the NFL with the Lions, D’Andre Swift & Jamaal Williams combined for 5 of Boyle’s 22 completions in that matchup. All signs point to Hall becoming the most reliable Jets pass catcher for the rest of the season, starting this week against Miami.

QB Trevor Lawrence (JAX) OVER 238.5 PASS YDS

Houston ranks 25th in opponent passing yards per game (241.4). Jacksonville ranks 29th in opponent passing yards per game (254.4). This game is bound to become a shootout between two of the league’s top young quarterbacks, and we will take advantage of this on Underdog.

Lawrence has hit the 239-yard mark in half his games this season, including in Week 3’s matchup with the Texans. Pederson and company looked to have rerouted the ship by dominating Tennessee last week and should keep that momentum up as the race for the AFC South title takes a major turn this Sunday.

Expect fireworks from both offenses with not too many injury concerns and two coaches that have put complete trust in their quarterbacks.

WR Tank Dell (HOU) OVER 64.5 REC YDS

Sticking with this matchup for one more Underdog prop bet, Tank Dell has been a favorite of ours dating back to the off-season best ball draft cycle. Heading into Week 12, Dell has six TDs and 42 catches in his rookie season, becoming a highly touted asset in all fantasy formats.

Top 16 among wideouts in YPR, TDs, and receiving yards per game, this is the perfect matchup that will see Dell enter the “untouchable” range as a fantasy asset and as Stroud’s top downfield target. He’s hit this mark in four of the seven games he’s started as a Texan.

QB Will Levis (TEN) UNDER 205.5 PASS YDS

There is a slight surprise when correlating the NFL standings to positive production. The 1-9 Carolina Panthers defense is actually… not that bad? The Panthers allow the 6th least YPG through the air while being “thrown on” the 3rd least in all of the league.

While Carolina’s ground defense leaves more to be desired, bet against the rookie Will Levis in what could be considered a trap game for the Titans. The Tennessee QB hasn’t hit this yardage mark in back-to-back games as the Titans have leaned more on the ground game.

Matt Brown

With an unwavering passion for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, Matt brings a wealth of knowledge in football, hockey, and baseball to the team at Hello Rookie. His innovative insights are shaped by his extensive academic background, boasting a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management. Matt's unique blend of sports enthusiasm and technical expertise drives his cutting-edge contributions to the platform.

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