NFL Week 14 Pick'em Picks for Underdog

Matt Brown
by Matt Brown | Published: December 6, 2023

In Week 14, look for two standout NFC wide receivers to make a mark on their divisional matchups, while Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco should run wild against their conference rivals.

WR Mike Evans (TB) OVER 72.5 REC YDS

After making history, becoming the second player in NFL history to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the 10th straight season, Evans shouldn’t slow down against the Bucs’ division rival.

While Atlanta’s pass defense has proven to be solid this season, they have hiccuped in their last three outings allowing 241 yards through the air to two sub-par quarterbacks and Kyler Murray in his first game back.

Against a defense that hasn’t played against a high-profile receiver in the middle of the season, look for Mike to hit the 73-yard mark for the sixth time this season. 

WR DJ Moore (CHI) OVER 76.5 REC YDS

When Fields is the starter, DJ Moore has four 100-yard games and six touchdowns in seven outings. As seen in the Bears’ rough win against the Vikings, Moore is the key playmaker for this offense and that shouldn’t change against a Lions defense allowing yards and scores.

Detroit, although possessing a potent offense, has allowed 28.75 PPG in their last four outings including big games to Herbert and Jordan Love.

With the Lions allowing over 260 passing yards per contest in away games, watch out for the Fields/Moore connection to take another leap in this divisional game that could end up coming down to the wire.

QB Lamar Jackson (BAL) OVER 202.5 PASS YDS

Jackson now has played in the same amount of games as his 2022 and 2021 campaigns. Looking as healthy as ever, his play combined with the Ravens' stout defense should give the Rams some problems in what has a good chance of becoming a slight shootout.

While we won’t expect Jackson to go for five touchdowns on just 15 completions like this Week 12 matchup in 2019, Lamar has hit this 203-yard mark six times this campaign.

The Rams are in the middle of the pack regarding yards allowed through the air, but with this offense clicking (9 TDs in the last two games), Lamar will need to hit this number to keep up with LA’s hot offense.

RB Christian McCaffrey (SF) OVER 83.5 RUSH YDS

McCaffrey faces the Seahawks again, two weeks after he dropped 114 rush yards on 19 carries to seal the win early on.

Seattle’s defense has allowed 129 YPG on the ground through their last three and with a weak interior defense, don’t expect that number to drop during this matchup with the hottest offense in the NFL.

CMC has hit this mark 7 out of 12 times in what might be the best season of his career.

RB Isiah Pacheco (KC) OVER 69.5 RUSH YDS

Pacheco and the Chiefs take on the Bills, who allow the 4th-most YPA on carries in the league. With this game expected to have the biggest over/under in Week 14, we would look for Andy Reid and Mahomes to try and slow down the pace at times, allowing Pacheco to get his 15-20 touches that he’s accustomed to.

Over the last five games, the undrafted RB has hit the 4 YPC mark four times, while hitting the century total in rush yards for the second time this season last week. With a positive matchup, look for Pacheco to run wild once again.

Matt Brown

With an unwavering passion for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, Matt brings a wealth of knowledge in football, hockey, and baseball to the team at Hello Rookie. His innovative insights are shaped by his extensive academic background, boasting a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management. Matt's unique blend of sports enthusiasm and technical expertise drives his cutting-edge contributions to the platform.

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