NFL Wildcard Saturday Pick'em Picks for Underdog: Keep Riding Flacco!

Matt Brown
by Matt Brown | Published: January 12, 2024

Welcome to NFL Wildcard Weekend! The 4-seeded Texans led by breakout rookie C.J. Stroud take on Joe Flacco’s 5-seeded Browns, while the Chiefs and Dolphins’ running backs might take over their matchup in the rough Kansas City weather this Saturday.

QB Joe Flacco (CLE) OVER 268.5 PASS YDS

The Joe Flacco train carries on into the playoffs against a Houston defense that allowed 418 yards of offense to the Browns just three weeks ago. With Joe hitting the 300-yard mark in his last four outings, nothing on the Houston defense makes us reconsider this prop bet, especially considering Amari Cooper and David Njoku’s rises as top-tier playmakers against any secondary in the league.

WR Elijah Moore (CLE) UNDER 3.5 REC

With Cooper, Njoku, Bell, Hunt, Tillman, and Ford all due to make key impacts for the Browns, David Moore’s 4 reception day might be an afterthought. Moore has hit this mark 7 of 17 times this season, and just twice in five games with Flacco at the QB spot.

With birth to the next round on the line in Houston, look for Njoku, the running backs, and Cooper to control most of the target share while Moore should step into his usual dual-threat role out of the backfield.

QB C.J. Stroud (HOU) UNDER 11.5 RUSH YDS

While we know C.J. Stroud can sling the rock, his rushing ability might have a cap on it against Cleveland. The Browns did extremely well the last time they played a QB who could escape the pocket, holding Justin Fields to just 30 yards on the ground in their Week 15 matchup.

With C.J. hitting this mark in just 6 of 15 games in his rookie year, look for the Browns' incredible front 7 to limit his rushing ability.

RB De’Von Achane (MIA) OVER 0.5 TD (1.5x)

Our Underdog boosted bet for Saturday’s slate is the Miami rookie speedster to find the endzone in snowy Kansas City. With grim weather in place for this matchup, expect Mike McDaniel to include Achane in many red zone packages that find him out in space where he can use his speed to find the paydirt against this Kansas City defense.

Although Achane’s touchdowns normally come in bunches, he’s scored 11 TDs in 11 games this season, so expect McDaniel to be comfortable giving him touches close to the goal line while Mostert is coming back from injury.

RB Isiah Pacheco (KC) OVER 19.5 REC YDS

In a matchup that features three incredible running backs, Isaiah Pacheco is the X-factor for Kansas City’s offense. Not only did he score two TDs in his last two games of the season, but he was a key contributor in the receiving game, with 11 receptions for 35 yards and a score in Weeks 16 and 17.

In the Chiefs’ Super Bowl run last season, Pacheco hauled in 5 catches for 59 yards against Cincy in the AFC Championship. With McKinnon on IR, look for the former 7th-round running back to make his mark through the air.

Matt Brown

With an unwavering passion for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, Matt brings a wealth of knowledge in football, hockey, and baseball to the team at Hello Rookie. His innovative insights are shaped by his extensive academic background, boasting a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management. Matt's unique blend of sports enthusiasm and technical expertise drives his cutting-edge contributions to the platform.

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