NFL Week 13 Pick'em Picks for Underdog

Matt Brown
By Matt BrownPublished: November 29, 2023
NFL Week 13 Pick'em Picks for Underdog

While playmakers Derrick Henry, Tank Dell, and Christian McCaffrey should hit their “overs” in positive matchups, bet against QBs Will Levis and Desmond Ridder as their squads lean more on the ground game later in the season.

WR Tank Dell (HOU) OVER 64.5 REC YDS

We are riding Dell’s over on Underdog once again this week, with confidence C.J. Stroud and the Texans will bounce back against the surging Broncos.

Dell has become Stroud’s favorite downfield target, seeking 8 or more targets and over 90 YPG during the past four weeks with five touchdowns caught.

With Denver’s offense starting to piece drives together, expect Houston’s game plan to feature Dell in as many one-on-one downfield pickups as they can get. 

QB Will Levis (TEN) UNDER 201.5 PASS YDS

It’s no secret. Will Levis doesn’t have to do much to win a football game. With the Titans' defense sitting around the middle of the pack in most categories and Derrick Henry not slowing down, Levis hasn’t hit the 200-yard mark in any of the past three contests.

In his second divisional matchup, don’t expect this to change against a Colts defense that is slowly improving as they continue to search for a playoff spot in the tough AFC. 

RB Derrick Henry (TEN) OVER 70.5 RUSH YDS

Sticking with the Titans' offense, Derrick Henry should come out of this contest with another great performance on the ground.

Indy allows the 4th-most rushing attempts in the league alongside allowing 143 rush yards per game during their previous three outings.

With Henry coming off one of his best performances of the season, look for Vrabel and Tennessee to continue to utilize him to extend drives.

QB Kyler Murray (ARI) OVER 220.5 PASS YDS

In his fourth game back from injury, Murray faces a Pittsburgh defense allowing 236 YPG through the air, including nearly 300 yards to Jordan Love in Week 10, the last time this defense faced a “true starter”.

With a positive game script and most of the Cardinals' primary weapons healthy, this might be a trap game for the Steelers as Murray finds his footing once again.

QB Desmond Ridder (ATL) UNDER 186.5 PASS YDS

Similar to Levis, Ridder doesn’t have to throw for 200 yards to win a football game. Desmond hasn’t hit this marker in the previous four games, while only playing 100% of snaps in one of those.

Coming up against the Jets, who allow just 183 passing yards per contest, including just 228 to Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa last week, this is a nightmare matchup for Ridder to get back on track.

RB Christian McCaffrey (SF) OVER 71.5 RUSH YDS

Philly’s defense has let them down at times this season. As for McCaffrey, look for the best RB in the league to put together some big ground games against this defense that has allowed 4.5 YPC during the previous three games.

Since San Francisco’s bye, they are a dominant 3-0, with McCaffrey rushing for 78 yards or more in each game alongside scoring 3 total TDs. With Philly struggling to make stops all season, this is a statement game for CMC and the 49ers offense.

Matt Brown

Matt Brown

Head of DFS

Matt's deep-rooted enthusiasm for sports betting and daily fantasy sports infuses the EatWatchDraft team with valuable expertise in football, hockey, and baseball. His forward-thinking perspectives are grounded in a solid academic foundation, including a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and an M.S. in Project Management. This combination of sports passion and technical knowledge fuels Matt's innovative input to the platform.