Patriots at Steelers: 4 Underdog Picks for TNF

Matt Brown
by Matt Brown | Published: December 5, 2023

In what could become a forgettable primetime matchup, the 2-10 Patriots take on the 7-5 Steelers in Pittsburgh with Mitch Trubisky taking the snaps. While betting on Diontae Johnson to continue his hot run of play with Mitch as the QB, take Najee Harris’ under against a top-tier Pats rush defense.

RB Najee Harris (PIT) UNDER 59.5 RUSH YDS

With limited picks to make in this game, our first “under” selection is nearly a lock. The Patriots' defense has allowed 18 yards on 1.29 YPC to Austin Ekeler last week and the week before, 46 yards on 3.83 YPC to Saquon Barkley.

This rush defense is the 3rd-best in the NFL and with a weaker offensive line and slower running back in Harris, expect the Pats defense to bottle up the rushing lanes for a north-to-south runner in Harris.

The former Alabama star has gone for less than 50 yards in matchups against other top rush defenses in San Francisco, Cleveland, Baltimore, and Jacksonville this season. Let's ride the Under!

RB Jaylen Warren (PIT) OVER 14.5 REC YDS

Staying with the Steelers running back room, Jaylen Warren is a solid bet in the passing game, with Trubisky struggling to move the ball downfield at times. Jaylen is nearing the 6 YPC mark this season, hitting this over seven times in 12 appearances.

While the Pats rush defense should limit both RBs rushing the ball, Mitch is known for his check downs so Warren should be the back to bet on in this Thursday Night Football matchup that we might want to erase from our memory when it is over.

WR Diontae Johnson (PIT) OVER 39.5 REC YDS

One bright spot for this Pittsburgh offense should come in the form of Diontae Johnson. Simply put, he produces incredible output with Trubisky behind center.

With Mitch starting, Diontae has played six games. He’s hit the 10-target-mark five times, the 50-yard-mark every time, and looking ahead should continue this success with Pittsburgh’s backup quarterback as the Steelers’ WR1.

RB Ezekiel Elliott (NE) OVER 0.5 TDS (1.25x)

Elliott comes into this game with 2 TDs on the season, but with Rhamondre Stevenson ruled out for this game, there comes a huge opportunity to find the pay-dirt against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh has allowed 3 rush TDs in their last three games, including a 100-yard day with 2 scores for James Conner this past weekend.

Matt Brown

With an unwavering passion for sports betting and daily fantasy sports, Matt brings a wealth of knowledge in football, hockey, and baseball to the team at Hello Rookie. His innovative insights are shaped by his extensive academic background, boasting a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and a M.S. in Project Management. Matt's unique blend of sports enthusiasm and technical expertise drives his cutting-edge contributions to the platform.

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