PrizePicks NFL Week 1 Picks

by Chris Lollis | Published: August 10, 2021

If you love betting NFL props, you have to check out PrizePicks. PrizePicks bases all of their contests on whether certain star players will go over or under a certain statistical number. In this article, we’ll explain how PrizePicks works and also dive into our Season Long NFL Prop Picks for the upcoming season.

Here’s a quick look at the basic rules. Check out the PrizePicks website for the full list of rules. You have the option of playing season-long props or week-by-week props.

  • Choose 2-5 players from the board
  • Pick either OVER or UNDER their projected stats or fantasy points
  • Decide if you want Flex Play or Power Play
  • Flex Play allows you to still have a chance at winning even if you miss a prop, similar to single-game betting
  • With Power Play, you must hit all of your props to win. Think of Power Play as like a Parlay

Our 4 Favorite Prop Picks For the 2021 NFL Season

The NFL knows how to get eyeballs on their product and week one is no exception. This is an absolutely loaded slate, with several games that would be the highlight of most weeks. Below are a handful of players we think will either hit or miss their week one totals at PrizePicks.

Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 1100.5 Rushing Yards

Have you noticed that Zeke’s production has declined each year since he got his big fat payday a few years ago? Speaking of fat, that’s exactly how Elliott looked all of 2020. Maybe it was too much time partying and not enough time in the weight room!

The 26-year still put up some decent numbers last season but didn’t look nearly as quick as in years past. The former Ohio State star didn’t even crack the 1,000-yard mark last year as he topped out at 979.

Though multiple reports say that Zeke recently came to training camp in much better shape, we still think he’ll have a hard time going over the 1100.5 yard mark. There are multiple reasons for this.

The Cowboys’ offensive line is not the “Great Wall of Dallas” like it used to be. Tyron Smith and Zack Martin are still great blockers, but both seem to be constantly injured. If either one of them goes down, there won’t be many holes for Elliott to run through in 2021.

Also, if Dak Prescott stays healthy the entire year, coach Mike McCarthy is going to want to throw the ball a ton. The strength of this Dallas offense is the depth of their wide receiver corps. McCarthy and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will be more focused on getting the ball to Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup. That will mean fewer carries for Zeke and a great chance for us to win this Under 1100.5 rushing yards prop.

Joe Burrow OVER 4200.5 Passing Yards

We’ve talked ad nauseam about how we love to bet on quarterbacks from bad teams to put up huge numbers. Joe Burrow fits that scenario perfectly this season. The Cincinnati Bengals will show some improvement, but they’ll still be trailing in most of their games.

This helps our case for the over because Burrow will be chucking the ball around the yard the entire game just to try to stay within striking distance. Last season, Burrow ended up with 2688 passing yards in only 10 games. That’s an average of 268.8 passing yards per contest.

If we multiply 268.8 by the new 17 game schedule, we end up with 4570 passing yards for Burrow in 2021. Obviously, this would easily sail over the posted total of 4200.5. Even if Burrow plays in only 16 games, he’ll still have a decent chance to eclipse this total.

The only thing that could derail this prop is if Burrow ends up getting hurt again because of a poor offensive line. However, we’ll take that risk and hope that Burrow hits his former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase for several deep passes. We like our chances with the former Heisman Trophy winner in this over prop.

Robert Woods OVER 995.5 Receiving Yards

With veteran gunslinger Matthew Stafford taking over as the Los Angeles Rams quarterback, we love Robert Woods to have a huge 2021 season. Jared Goff was okay, but he is nowhere near the playmaker that Stafford is.

Woods had over 1,000 yards receiving in two of the last three seasons, even with Goff under center. Just imagine how big of a year Woods could have with Stafford at the helm. Even though Woods only had 936 receiving yards in 2020, he’s still only 29 years old and has plenty of speed to stretch defenses.

Now that running back Cam Akers has torn his Achilles and is out for the year, we expect Sean McVay to throw the ball more often. This should help Woods rack up a ton of receiving yards this season. This one looks like an easy over!

Alvin Kamara OVER 9.5 Rushing Touchdowns

This just in: Alvin Kamara has a nose for finding the end zone! The 26-year old has 43 rushing touchdowns over his first four NFL seasons. The former Tennessee standout has also been extremely durable as he’s only missed a handful of games in his career.

Kamara had a brilliant 2020 season by scoring 16 rushing touchdowns for the Saints. With the retirement of Drew Brees, expect head coach Sean Payton to lean on Kamara even more than in years past. This means that Kamara has a great chance of scoring more than the posted total of 9.5 rushing touchdowns.

Our only concern here is that Payton may decide to use Taysom Hill more around the goal line for QB sneaks. Veteran running back Latavius Murray will also take a few carries away from Kamara. Nevertheless, we feel strongly about Kamara reaching double digits in touchdowns this season! Give us the OVER!

Chris Lollis

Chris has a background in DFS that spans nearly a decade. He launched his first DFS website in 2012 and has been sharing winners ever since. Find him on Twitter at @_Chris_Lollis.

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