Six-Pack of CFB Week 7 Player Prop Picks
Last week, readers of this author hit on an impressive 83% of our picks, correctly selecting player props bets in two showdowns of undefeated teams while also hitting on three more props.
For the year, readers following these choices are hitting over 60% of their bets. Now, let’s get to the picks!
Purdue QB Hudson Card UNDER 209.5 Passing Yards
After former Purdue HC Jeff Brohm bolted for Louisville, the Boilermakers went with a defensive-first head coach – first-time HC Ryan Walters – and an “Air Raid” style attack guided by Offensive Coordinator Graham Harrell.
Adding former University of Texas QB Hudson Card looked to be another stroke of genius for the Boilermakers heading into the 2023 season. The initial results have been mixed.
At 2-4, the Boilermakers have been effective in spurts against other Big 10 opponents, but good defenses have shut down Card. Ohio State has a good defense, and the Buckeyes have yet to surrender more than 207 passing yards in a single game. Purdue – and especially Card – will be in for a long day, making this an easy bet to take.
Michigan RB Donovan Edwards OVER 35.5 Rushing Yards
Although the No. 2 ranked Michigan Wolverines are rolling through their schedule, trap games – such as their upcoming contest with the Indiana Hoosiers – could blindside their program. Facing hated rival Michigan State next week, are the Wolverines overlooking this contest?
And with two weeks to prepare for this game, is Indiana prepared to pull an upset? The answer is no. Outside of their tussle with Indiana State, the Hoosiers have allowed two different backs from each school to break off 15+ yards on a single run.
And solid teams – even pass-happy Louisville – are running effectively against Indiana. Expect Wolverines RB Donovan Edwards – the second option of a two-headed monster with Blake Corum – to burst through the Hoosiers’ soft run defense and easily eclipse 35.5 rushing yards.
Iowa State QB Rocco Becht OVER 192.5 Passing Yards
The gambling scandal surrounding Iowa State this offseason led to four players – including presumed starting QB Hunter Dekkers – being ruled ineligible for the 2023 season. The Cyclones immediately turned to QB Rocco Becht to take over Dekkers’ duties despite Becht’s freshman status.
Becht has had an up-and-down season in a run-oriented offense. The rookie start has completed 60% of his passes for 1,223 yards, including a 348-yard gem against Oklahoma State earlier this season.
Defensively, Cincinnati has been strong against the running game, holding every team thus far to under 125 yards on the ground. Expect Iowa State to turn to Becht in this game, eclipsing the 192.5-yard mark through the air against the Bearcats on Saturday.
Oregon QB Bo Nix UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (+110)
Through five games, Oregon QB Bo Nix has been outstanding. The senior signal-caller has thrown for 1,459 yards and 15 TDs against one INT.
While improved play is behind Nix’s performance, an outstanding rushing attack – one that has amassed 1,136 yards and 16 TDs on the season – is also why the Ducks’ QB has excelled this season.
Although Washington has intercepted eight passes this year, the Huskies aren’t pressuring opposing defenses. Through five games, Washington has only six sacks. With time to throw in the pocket, expect Bo Nix to continue his hot streak and leave the game without throwing an interception against the Huskies.
Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright UNDER 61.5 Rushing Yards
The Tennessee Volunteers feature a dynamic and balanced offensive attack, gaining nearly as many rushing yards (1,156) as passing yards (1,175) through their first five games. RB Jaylen Wright leads their loaded backfield corps with 435 rushing yards on 61 carries in 2023. Outside of a blowout against UTSA, Wright has recorded at least 63 yards in every game this year.
On the opposite side of the field, Texas A&M can stop their opponents’ run game. In the Aggies’ two losses, Alabama netted 23 yards on 26 carries while Miami posted 77 yards on 24 carries.
Conversely, Texas A&M is susceptible to teams – like Tennessee – that have strong passing attacks. Expect Texas A&M to continue their run-stopping streak Saturday and hold Wright under 61.5 rushing yards.
LSU QB Jayden Daniels OVER 277.5 Passing Yards
LSU has one of college football’s most dynamic players in QB Jayden Daniels. Through the air, Daniels has completed 73% of his passes for 1,969 yards and 19 TDs in six games. On the ground, Daniels is the second-leading rusher for the Tigers as he has 75 carries for 422 yards and four more scores. To say Daniels is a nightmare to prepare for is an understatement.
The lone concern with this pick is how Auburn chooses to play the elite QB. Auburn shut down Georgia’s running game in their last outing two weeks ago, but Carson Beck enjoyed a 313-yard passing performance in the 27-20 victory over the Tigers. Yet Texas A&M chewed through Auburn’s defense for 209 yards on 33 carries, taking away the passing attack against the Aggies in a 27-10 defeat.
Look for Auburn to force Daniels to stay in the pocket – and avoid giving up huge chunks of yards on the ground – in this battle of two Tigers teams both needing a win. In this scenario, Daniels easily eclipses 277.5 yards passing.