Broncos at Chiefs: Underdog and Vivid Picks Picks

Mike Noblin
By Mike NoblinPublished: October 11, 2023
Broncos at Chiefs: Underdog and Vivid Picks Picks

The 1-4 Broncos head to Kansas City to face the red-hot Chiefs who are 3-0 with the Kelce/Swift duo. While banking on the Broncos playing from behind in this one, bet on Pacheco to have a huge night while the Broncos playmakers should be held to limited success against the fantastic Chiefs defense.

QB Russell Wilson (DEN) OVER 20.5 COMP

The 1-4 Broncos are heading into deep waters that might be tough to get out of. Heading into a rowdy Kansas City crowd on primetime, Wilson is due to play behind for most of this game against a much inferior opponent.

Russ has hit this mark three times this season, while his completion mark normally ends in the low 20s. With Kansas City coming in as favorites by a score-plus on most books, Wilson will have to spread the ball around to try and fight back in this AFC West battle.

RB Javonte Williams (DEN) UNDER 12.5 REC YDS

While the Broncos will have to fight back from the dead quite early, we could see more Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin coming out of the backfield.

Perine accounted for 60% of the snaps last week as McLaughlin had his share of 33% of snaps while putting up a TD in a second consecutive week.

Stay away from Williams this week as his snap share and involvement in the passing game continue to diminish.

WR Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) UNDER 18.5 REC YDS

A boom or bust play, Marvin Mims’ lack of snaps makes us weary about hitting this mark. Kansas City allows just 130 yards per game to the wideout position.

With Mims not playing in more than 35% of snaps in a single game this season, nor hauling in more than three catches in a single game, odds are that the Chiefs' rowdy defense limits the Broncos' big-play playmakers.

There will be plenty of 3-and-outs. Mims is a tough player to trust in this one.

CB Pat Surtain II (DEN) OVER 3.5 TKL+AST

The Chiefs will utilize all their playmakers across the field, including their star Quarterback’s legs throughout the night.

Expect Surtain to get involved in stopping Pacheco’s outside runs, Mahomes’ scrambles, and some short passes to Kelce. When the Broncos played their toughest opponent thus far in Miami, he hit this mark with 5 total tackles.

Expect the same result on Thursday night.

RB Isiah Pacheco (KC) OVER 2.0 REC

With the Broncos allowing over 165 yards on the ground to running backs and 68 yards through the air, Pacheco and McKinnon should have a field day at home.

The 2nd year back out of Rutgers has hit this mark in ⅗ games so far and should be receiving more than 50% of the snap share in this affair.

He hit this mark both times against the Broncos last season and looks to be emerging as a solid receiving option for Mahomes as his 2nd or 3rd progression if Kelce is bottled up. Expect Pacheco to turn in a fantastic game for Kansas City.

TE Travis Kelce (KC) OVER 0.5 TD

A 50/50 bet it seems, the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift connection is more of a 100/0.

All jokes aside, Kansas City is undefeated with that duo and if Travis ends up playing on Thursday (Questionable due to an ankle injury), a score against a horrendous Broncos defensive unit should be an easy bet to add to your Underdog slate.

WR Rashee Rice (KC) OVER 30.5 REC YDS

Rashee Rice has been a pleasant surprise for the Chiefs, scoring his 2nd TD of the season in the close battle in Minnesota. He's not yet receiving a bulk of the snap share, but expect that to change after some solid performances.

With Denver allowing over 180 yards to the wideout position and expecting Pat Surtain to be defending the other side of the football, Rice is a solid option in deeper leagues, DFS lineups, and for an Underdog prop bet as a sleeper in a potent offense in a plus matchup.

He’s hit this mark in three straight games and doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.

Mike Noblin

Mike Noblin

DFS Writer

Mike Noblin brings years of expertise as a skilled handicapper and the premier sports betting writer for EWD. With a solid two-decade background in the sector, Mike has dedicated the last three years to full-time analysis and writing. His coverage spans a wide variety of sports, but his primary areas of focus are the NFL, CFB, and MLB.