Jaguars at Saints: Underdog and Vivid Picks Pick'em Picks

Mike Noblin
By Mike NoblinPublished: October 18, 2023
Jaguars at Saints: Underdog and Vivid Picks Pick'em Picks

In a battle of the receiving backs, the 4-2 Jags travel to New Orleans to face the 3-3 Saints on Thursday Night.

While trusting in Etienne and Kamara to get the job done in the receiving game, be wary of betting on Ridley, especially if Lawrence sits this game out due to a knee injury.

RB Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX) OVER 84.5 Rush/Rec YDS

In his 2nd full season of play for Jacksonville, Etienne has already matched his TD total from last season with five in his first six matchups.

With 20+ touches in all but one game, Doug Pederson and Lawrence obviously value the former Clemson RB as one of their top weapons in the passing game which gives him a boost on TNF.

Outside of that odd game in Week 2 where Kansas City nor the Jags could get any offense running, Etienne has 3+ receptions and 18+ carries in every ballgame. Reaching that RB1 status, look for Etienne to make a huge impact in the passing game against New Orleans.

WR Christian Kirk (JAX) OVER 51.5 REC YDS

With Trevor Lawrence questionable this Wednesday morning, Jacksonville’s spread, over, and player props keep shifting. One player might be QB-proof on Jacksonville's receiving core though.

Playing out of the slot, Christian Kirk will be the beneficiary of the Saints getting pressure on either Lawrence or Beathard depending on who gets the start.

Outside of the Week 1 dud, CKirk has hit this mark in every week except in last week’s rout at home against the Colts.

WR Calvin Ridley (JAX) UNDER 54.5 REC YDS

Someone who would be mightily impacted by the loss of Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, expectedly, has been unpredictable to start his Jaguars campaign.

The 28-year-old will head back to the AFC South and face the Saints, who he torched for 108 yards in their last matchup in 2020.

Even with Trevor quarterbacking, Lattimore and this fantastic Saints secondary should keep the Jags outside man contained.

QB Derek Carr (NO) OVER 239.5 PASS YDS

It’s no coincidence the only time Carr has reached the over this season, it’s happened against the two AFC South opponents.

While the AFC South squads are slowly starting to piece together franchise quarterbacks, their defenses leave something to be desired.

Jacksonville allowed 269 YPG through the air and with Derek coming off two solid performances (against New England & Jacksonville), a home game against a subpar defense with Thomas, Olave, and Kamara healthy is just what he needs to continue his hot streak.

RB Alvin Kamara (NO) OVER 29.5 REC YDS

Back to a normal pitch count like nothing ever happened, Kamara has seen a ridiculous 75 touches in just three games. While turning that into just one touchdown and less than 100 yards receiving, he’s faced some tougher defenses in the Bucs, Pats, and Texans.

Expecting the back to receive another 20-25 touches in this matchup, his receiving total is our favorite bet of the night.

Jacksonville sits at the bottom of the league in many running back receiving stats and while allowing a fairly respectable yard-per-catch number to the RB position, hasn’t faced a player quite like Kamara. Look for Alvin to hit this mark for the 3rd time as his season is just starting to ramp up.

WR Rashid Shaheed (NO) OVER 35.5 REC YDS

An unsung hero in this Saints offense, Shaheed has become one of the more electric players for this squad, scoring three total touchdowns while becoming a downfield impact player for Carr & co.

Rashid has hit this mark in half his games, but in a shortened week where Jacksonville’s focus will be to stop Michael Thomas and Chris Olave, Shaheed could go unnoticed and make a huge impact as a deep ball threat against a Jacksonville defense that sits in 24th for WR YPG allowed.

Mike Noblin

Mike Noblin

DFS Writer

Mike Noblin brings years of expertise as a skilled handicapper and the premier sports betting writer for EWD. With a solid two-decade background in the sector, Mike has dedicated the last three years to full-time analysis and writing. His coverage spans a wide variety of sports, but his primary areas of focus are the NFL, CFB, and MLB.