Lions at Packers: Underdog Pick'em Picks

Mike Noblin
By Mike NoblinPublished: September 27, 2023
Lions at Packers: Underdog Pick'em Picks

Heading into Week 4, the Packers (2-1) and Lions (2-1) have to be thrilled with what they’ve seen so far. Jordan Love and Jared Goff find themselves within the top 6 of QBR rankings, Jahmyrr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown look like elite playmakers and the Packers defense made a few clutch stops last game to secure an improbable Lambeau victory.

While continuing to hammer Love’s rushing ability and Goff’s incredible 3rd down accuracy through the air, we have five Underdog prop bets to make before we kick this NFC North matchup off on Thursday.

QB Jared Goff (DET) OVER 34.5 PASS ATT

Jared Goff comes into Thursday’s rivalry game with the 4th best QBR in the National Football League, sitting just behind Tua, Purdy, and Herbert. In his third year with the Lions, Goff has looked stellar while throwing for 5 TDs thus far.

Consistency is key with Dan Campbell’s cornerstone, as he’s thrown for 35, 35, and 33 attempts against some solid secondaries so far. The Packers have allowed 32 passing attempts per game to Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder, and a combination of Derek Carr & Jameis Winston.

Given that subpar group of QBs mentioned, it’s inevitable Goff throws 35+ times on Thursday, especially with David Montgomery most likely sitting during a short week for Detroit.

QB Jordan Love (GB) OVER 16.5 RUSH YDS

Love’s rushing ability has been a pleasant surprise for Matt LaFleur and company out in Green Bay. He’s increased his yardage total in each game and even had a huge first-down run to advance the Packers’ comeback against New Orleans at Lambeau last week.

Detroit allowed 45 rushing yards to Pat Mahomes and 20 to Geno Smith, which is a great sign to hit the “over” button on this bet.

While Love might not be the speediest out of the shotgun or behind center, the potential absence of Aaron Jones and lack of pass-catching running backs and experienced tight ends should allow for some more scrambling opportunities on Thursday.

Luke Musgrave (GB) UNDER 3.5 REC

Sorry to ruin the party here, but Luke Musgrave’s “under” is the bet to make out of the Packers receiving core. Musgrave hit this mark, hauling in six of his eight targets on Sunday in their comeback win against the Saints.

With that being said, we don’t think Jordan Love will throw the ball 44 times nor target Luke as his top option with Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed emerging as viable options within this offense.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) OVER 76.5 TOT YDS

St. Brown has become a WR1 in every fantasy format, a must-start in DFS lineups, and a top receiver in the NFL in the matter of a season and a half. Brown went for 102 receiving yards in his past two affairs while continuing to become Goff’s favorite target in 3rd down and red zone situations.

While his reception total is a bit too spicy at 6.5, we prefer to bet on his yards as the former USC wideout is elite at evading tackles and beating slower safeties and corners in the slot.

With top-tier numbers in juke rate and yards per route run this season, everyone knows where the ball will go for Goff and the Lions on Thursday, but there’s no way this Packer defense will be able to stop it.

DB Brian Branch (DET) OVER 5.5 TOT TKL

A guy who should never have lasted until the 2nd round in the NFL draft, Branch has already made a huge impact on the field for Dan Campbell’s defense. In Week 1, he took a tipped Kadarius Toney target in for a touchdown which would end up winning the game for Detroit.

Fast forward to Sunday against the Saints and the former Alabama defensive back played a career-high 67% of snaps while logging 11 total tackles. While that snap percentage should still hover around 60-70% heading into week 4, we love taking Branch as a flier in prop bets this week.

The former Alabama star will have tackling opportunities when Love and Dillon run outside the numbers and when he is lined up in the middle of the field in some zone coverage looks. A freak athlete, this prop total could easily hit within the first three quarters of play.

Mike Noblin

Mike Noblin

DFS Writer

Mike Noblin brings years of expertise as a skilled handicapper and the premier sports betting writer for EWD. With a solid two-decade background in the sector, Mike has dedicated the last three years to full-time analysis and writing. His coverage spans a wide variety of sports, but his primary areas of focus are the NFL, CFB, and MLB.