NFL Week 11 Pick'em Picks for Underdog

Matt Brown
By Matt BrownPublished: November 16, 2023
NFL Week 11 Pick'em Picks for Underdog

From continuing to bet on the best story in football with Josh Dobbs to newfound top-tier QB C.J. Stroud, be cautious when placing trust in Tua Tagovailoa against an improved Raiders defense this week.

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (CLE) OVER 18.5 RUSH YDS & 0.5 FUMBLES LOST (1.75x)

Thompson-Robinson, the UCLA standout, will step in for Deshaun Watson this Sunday against a tough Pittsburgh defensive unit. While Robinson might struggle through the air, he should be a handful on the ground, sporting a 372-2,539-28 rushing line during his five seasons in college.

With Stefanski moving to a QB-friendly scheme, utilizing Ford and Hunt up the gut, the Pittsburgh defense might be “lulled to sleep” as Robinson could hit an open hole for a large gain.

With Pittsburgh forcing a league-high 2.0 fumbles per contest, Thompson to lose a fumble in his Sunday start is a fantastic bet, especially as a boosted prop bet via Underdog. With playmakers such as T.J. Watt coming off the edge, this is a safe bet as a boosted prop and should be on your radar for the 1 PM slate.

QB Jordan Love (GB) OVER 227.5 PASS YDS

JLove has hit this mark in the previous three contests and while not leading the Packers to their norm of winning ways, has found some success in the red zone.

Facing a Chargers defense that just allowed 41 points and 533 yards to the Lions, it seems as if Staley hasn’t figured out a proper scheme for his defense.

Although the Packers don’t have the same potent offense as Detroit, Love utilizing his healthy playmakers in Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs should lift him over this yard total at SoFi stadium.

QB Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) UNDER 2.0 PASS TD

We can already hear the rebuttal. Tua against the Raiders? How can you not bet his over? Well, let’s put the stats on the table. Believe it or not, Vegas is allowing the least PPG over the last three contests (14.7).

Granted, the Jets and Giants were two of the opponents, but this defensive performance isn’t a fluke. Las Vegas has only allowed over 25 points to an opponent twice, while the defense has limited opposing teams from completing blowouts.

With Miami’s run game more of an asset in this Sunday matchup, be weary of Tua’s “prop trap”.

QB C.J. Stroud (HOU) OVER 254.5 PASS YDS

How can we not ride the hot hand? C.J. Stroud’s rookie campaign has a certain aura to it heading into week 11 against Arizona.

He isn’t getting compared to fellow rookies Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson anymore, but rather Andrew Luck Peyton Manning, some of the greats.

Stroud has hit this mark five times in his young career and with all of his main contributors active (Dell, Collins, Schultz), expect this game to be a shootout between two of the premier young QBs in our league.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) OVER 69.5 TOT YDS

It is overwhelming. This Detroit offense is extremely… overwhelming.

After last week’s dominant offensive performance against the Chargers, where both Gibbs and Montgomery went for a score and over 100 total yards, we can bank on this Lions rushing attack leaning towards plug-and-play material in any fantasy format, including Underdog prop plays.

With Gibbs hitting the 17+ touch mark three games in a row, let’s trust in Dan Campbell to heavily utilize his dual-threat rookie to torch the Bears.

QB Josh Dobbs (MIN) OVER 5.0 RUSH ATT

Not only has Dobbs hit this mark in all but three games this season, but it seems as if Kevin O'Connell has let Josh Dobbs run this offense.

Looking like a mixture of Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes for spurts of the game, Dobbs should use his legs in the red zone to keep this Denver defense on its toes.

With Denver allowing a league-worst 5.6 YPC, bet on the best story in football to continue to grow in week 11 on primetime.

Matt Brown

Matt Brown

Head of DFS

Matt's deep-rooted enthusiasm for sports betting and daily fantasy sports infuses the EatWatchDraft team with valuable expertise in football, hockey, and baseball. His forward-thinking perspectives are grounded in a solid academic foundation, including a B.S. in Aeronautical Computer Science and an M.S. in Project Management. This combination of sports passion and technical knowledge fuels Matt's innovative input to the platform.